"We can neither endure our vices nor their remedies." - Livy about the Roman Empire
Whether it is riots, strikes or feelings of despondency, there is a sense of terminal decline in western politics. This is most evident in a declining share of the vote for the traditional top two parties in most European countries i.e. a mandate for change. Why has this come about?
On the one hand, ‘Managed decline’ is what we are largely seeing from centrist parties: a tax rise here, a tax cut there with lots of bluster. But behind the political jargon there is little that connects with the average voter, and there is no ambition around changing outcomes.
On the other hand, Far Right and Left parties propose more radical policies, but they seem to be ideologically driven, and championed by those who we do not trust. We also have a sense that second order effects have been ignored and things would play out very differently in reality.
To try and find a solution, we need to understand why this sense of despondency has started in the first place.
The 5Ds of decline
We have much in common with our European neighbours. To simplify all of the recent European elections, the malaise felt across the Europe is a feeling of absolute and relative decline, what I call, the the 5Ds:
1. Depleting Demographics
2. Declining living standards
3. Debt deluge
4. Diluting and Diverging cultural norms
5. Dangers abroad
I think anyone trying to connect with the populace, needs to accept these points.
1. Depleting demographics
Fewer workers: The share of the population aged 65 and over in the EU (largely considered to be a proxy for those who have left the labour force) has increased from 16.2% in 2003 to 21.3% in 2023
Fewer babies: The fertility rate has dropped from 2.5 children per woman in 1960 to 1.6 today. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, which is necessary to maintain a stable population without immigration.
In short, we have more dependents on the working population and a smaller pipeline of workers. Populations with more retirees and fewer babies face economic headwinds, higher healthcare costs and more requirement for social care and pensions. This is a drag on living standards.
No country has seriously dealt with the demographic issues, and have tried to plug skill gaps and outsource the unglamorous work resulting from poor demographics to immigrants.
2. Declining living standards
The economic statistics tell people their lives are fine, but reality does not reflect that. People feel poorer than their parents, and some of the economic statistics, like inflation, have been ‘revised’ to exclude key costs like housing.
For most of the population, wages have not kept up with real living costs (and increased expectations to boot).
Access to housing and ability to build a capital base has decreased
Public services are less effective than they were previously.
The sum of less money coming in and public services working less effectively is a lower standard of living however calculated. This is exacerbated when those at the very top accumulated an even greater proportion of the country’s total wealth.
Declining living standards is in part a result of poor economic growth, that can lead from poor demographics.
3. Debt deluge
We are spending beyond our means:
Poor working age demographics means the country has less to spend
As people retire the cost of pensions, healthcare and social care rockets. Generous unfunded promises of payments made by governments and companies when demographics were more favourable rack up.
Old age provision gets even more generous as retirees command a strong popular voice through sheer numbers and cultural capital
Decreased economic growth and rapidly increasing cost base leads to government deficits and burgeoning debt loads.
The UK's debt load as a % of its GDP has ballooned since 2008
4. Diluting and diverging cultural norms
This is a hot topic. Whilst immigration is the top of the list right now, there have been unprecedented organic changes not related to immigration in the population. If we compare the values and beliefs of the average English person in 1950 versus today the shift has been huge. In 1950, people were likely to:
Identify as Christian and visit church
Live in a nuclear heterosexual household where the parents were married in a church and having children was considered positive for society
Would expect to provide care for ageing parents
Have unequal access to opportunities, where those who were upper class and male would have a monopoly of the most socially desirable roles.
Have a proud and positive view of English history and Empire
Spend austerely, borrow little and save for a rainy day
There has been such a huge change in these core views within 75 years that an 80 year old and a 30 year old are likely to be opposed on many of these core values. Whilst there are values like democracy, kindness, integrity in common, we cannot ignore that the 'culture wars' are potentially most profound across age.
Then we need to think about the impact of immigration. Over the last 150 years there have been a number of immigration waves to the UK.
Jews from Eastern Europe in the late 19th Century fleeing Pogroms
Italians and Eastern Europeans after WWI
Post World War 2 Indians, Pakistanis, Irish and those from the Caribbean
East African Asians in the 1970s and 1980s
Since 1980, communities of refugees from Iraq, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria
The wave of European immigration starting in the late 1980s
The main sources of immigration have been 1) Refugees (European Jews, and those more recently from war-torn Islamic countries) and those with historic links to the UK (East Africans that had British passports), 2) EU freedom of movement and 3) filling skill shortages after each world war.
These waves have also contributed to the diversity of cultural norms. Some of the prevailing attitudes of immigrants are similar on ideas of family values to those in 1950, but very different to the gender norms or religious ideas of English people today.
The differences have been large and rapid in some cities, where being White British for example, puts you in a minority in London and Leicester. With Islam as the UK’s second largest religion, we are also seeing cultural norms expand e.g. the large move of restaurants to Halal meat and increases in prayer rooms in public spaces.
The key changes that can be seen is in ethnicity and religion with white people now 81.7% of the population and Christians as 46.2%.
The change has been rapid and has led to some seeing parts of London and Leicester as ‘foreign’ with non-native cultural norms predominating. They feel that the rapid immigration we have seen has permanently and irreversibly changed the cultural fabric.
This is not the first time that people have been worried about immigrant groups. There was widespread anti-Irish sentiment after the Great Famine in Ireland where many came to settle in Great Britain, the antisemitism of the British Fascists in the 1930s, the Rivers of Blood speech by Enoch Powell in 1968 where he warned "In this country in fifteen or twenty years' time, the black man will have the whip hand over the white man." It does sound very similar to the anti-Islam rhetoric we are hearing today.
Whilst everyone is an expert on immigration these days, we seriously lack a comprehensive debate. I think a proper debate will cover the following:
Why we might need them: skill gaps, unglamorous jobs and demographics
What immigrants need: More housing, more schools, more infrastructure
The risks of too much immigration: Competition for public resources, and cultural indigestion.
5. Dangers abroad
"We are living in dangerous times. Our world is becoming unhinged. Geopolitical tensions are at a fever pitch." - Antonio Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General
Whilst the US and the West has had power rivals like Russia since 1945, the world is a more contested place than ever
The wars that rage today (Ukraine, Gaza) and those that have raged before (e.g. Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria) just seem to be longer, more expensive and more morally fraught than they used to be, and the outcomes seem to be less favourable.
Our access to resources seem less secure than they once were, with gas prices two years ago, spiking, contributing to inflation that was already rising.
Our story of democracy and free markets seems to have less conviction than before with US election legitimacy being challenged and tariffs being raised by President Trump.
The next blog
This all feels quite downbeat. We feel we are less safe military, have less secure supply lines and are somewhat losing our conviction on our way of life. The 'down-in-the-dumps' feeling is almost expected given what is happening, but I for one, do not think it is terminal.
The challenge we have, is how can we convince ourselves to take our medicine when it will be politically difficult.
I think the answer is in Radical Centrism, which is pragmatic and action-oriented.
Next week "Radical Centrism". Don't forget to sign up to the blog Blog | Deciders (hartejsingh.com).
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