"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." - Robert Kennedy
The law-making process has come into view a lot recently. Do we have the right laws? Are our laws a relic of the past or a good reminder of lines we should not cross? Why does it take so long for laws to change? Do the people making our laws understand the reality of life on the ground?
Laws often seem like they are carved into stone—unchanging, permanent, eternal. But just like the societies they serve, laws change. They adapt to new realities, although slowly and almost imperceptibly in the short term.
However, on a longer timescale, the transformation of laws can be striking. What was once considered just may become unjust. What was forbidden can become embraced. It’s easy to forget that what feels like a constant is, in fact, deeply fluid. This is important in a world changing in circumstances, attitudes and technology. As we ask for new and different things from our leaders, our laws will change too.
The Fluid Nature of Law
In 1800, slavery was widely legal. In only a few decades abolitionist movements had forced seismic legal change in much of the world. Homosexuality, once criminalized in many countries, is now recognized with marriage rights in some of those same places.
The underlying truth is that laws are not static. They change because our needs, values, and priorities as a society change.
What Are Laws, Really?
Laws exist to keep order, protect rights, resolve arguments, and regulate behavior. They’re essentially a set of rules designed to ensure society functions as desired. But, they are not scientifically derived regulations. They are mirrors of what a society deems important. Laws about marriage or alcohol, for example, vary widely across the globe, each reflecting the broader societal values and history of a region.
At their best, laws are respected when they are:
Seen as fair
Decided through fair processes.
Consistently enforced.
Help create good outcomes.
When those conditions aren’t met—when laws seem unfair, imposed, warped or inconsistently applied—public trust erodes, and calls for change grow louder.
This was heard loudly when women were hugely under-represented (and still are) in the highest echelons of power, and more recently heard with the cries of "two-tier" policing and injustice at scarce resources directed towards asylum seekers.
Why Do Laws Change?
The common catalysts for legal change are:
Public Pressure: When public opinion grows stronger than political inertia, laws can shift. The civil rights movement in the U.S. is a prime example.
Government Initiatives: Sometimes, governments aim to lead public opinion, as seen with anti-smoking campaigns that combined laws and education.
Court Decisions: A decision in a case often sets the stage for broader legislative change.
Crises: Emergencies demand quick action like lockdowns during COVID or emergency legislation to protect banks during the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-9.
Technology changes: Situations not considered before like internet safety, the gig economy, and AI need laws to help maintain growth without exposing people to significant risks.
The trade-offs
Crafting laws is a delicate balancing act. Every law must navigate the push and pull between competing priorities. Here are a few of the interesting tensions:
Freedom vs. Security:
Are we comfortable with facial recognition if it helps police identify known criminals?
If there were another pandemic would people be willing to be locked down again?
How comfortable are we with the government being able to go through our personal messages?
What is Fair and to whom?:
What is a fair process? Are we committed to equality of opportunity or equality of outcome?
Should we bias the system towards marginalised members of societies?
What is more important, the right to freedom of expression or the right to see reasonably fact-checked information?
Tradition vs Progress
Many religious traditions are weaved into our culture, Christmas and Easter holidays, limited trading on the Sunday rest day etc., to what extent do we want the law to embed them?
New technologies allow us to "Play as the Creator" how are we going to rein in the temptation to significantly depart from our ideas of nature?
10 Laws I speculate will change in the next 10 years.
If you have read my blog long enough, you know that long-term forecasts say more about the forecaster than the future to paraphrase Buffet, but it's a fun process so should be taken in that vein. Here goes an attempt to speculate which laws might change taking into account the change in technology, public discourse and political pressure. I think the following laws will come into existence within the next 10 years:
A ban on developing robots with super-human AGI capabilities
Allowing babies to be gestated outside of a human.
International laws that regulate who has access and rights to space.
An international treaty around drone use
People will own their own digital data
Limitations on the production of meat to reduce use of key resources and the environmental damage.
Sovereign debt crises will lead to governments holding themselves to a legally binding balanced budget or even complete pegging of its currency to gold or similar.
Marijuana and psychedelics to be legalised.
A number of countries will leave the ICC, UNHCR's refugee conventions and other international treaties that manages conflict and treatment of refugees.
It will become a crime to deny climate change.
In the end, laws are tools, not truths. They’re meant to serve society, and like all tools, they must be refined and reshaped to fit the hands that wield them. The question isn’t whether laws will change, but how—and whether we, as a society, are ready to lead that change.
What do you think? How should laws evolve to reflect our ever-changing world?
So what?
Laws are fluid: They evolve with societal changes, adapting to new values, priorities, and circumstances, like the abolition of slavery.
Laws are tools not truths: They help maintain order, protect rights, resolve conflicts, and reflect culture and their legitimacy depends on fairness, morality, and consistent enforcement. They also balance competing priorities.
Catalysts for Legal Change: Public pressure, government initiatives, court decisions, crises, and technological advancements might lead to changes including banning superhuman AI, international space and drone treaties, and stronger data ownership laws.
Next week I will be discussing "Good process but bad outcome". Until then, please sign up to receive the blog directly to your email at Blog | Deciders.
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