"The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday's logic." - Peter Drucker
If someone had gone to a meditation retreat on 31st Dec 2023 and only emerged today, what would we tell them happened in 2024?
For me it boils down to changes in what we trust. I believe, many long term trends are in place and it will lead to a reforming of old institutions or new institutions to better reflect interests that exist today.
All change please
My personal view is that we as a society have changed enough over the last 80 years, that the institutions that govern countries and the world need to be reset. I think there is an emerging consensus that we need change, but there are differing views of what that change should be.
I think there are significant differences of opinion on fundamental questions:
What is the value add of a national government? Is the primary goal of government to help people achieve higher living standards?
Who is being overserved and underserved by our current setup? Should we rack up debt for generations to come?
What is our role and responsibility internationally? Do we have a responsibility to house people fleeing persecution?
Should we try and preserve our national cultural identity? If so, how do we do that?
Technology is developing exponentially, but are we sure we know whether it is adding value overall or not? What are appropriate places to have it, and for it to be excluded/regulated?
These are important discussions but they are being had in ways that feel shallow. Change tends to have two flavours, slow gradual change, or very short, sharp shocks. Elections are telling us voters are starting to favour the more radical change. The differing views of a way forward are becoming more shrill and polarised. That is being aided by the drama cycle.
The 4 stage drama cycle
It felt like all polarised issues (elections, conflicts or events) went through the following drama cycle, resulting in sides that could not bear to hear from each other.
Stage 1: Start with a tribal or developed view
Stage 2: Find articles that agree with that view
Stage 3: Feel more convicted in your view
Stage 4: Develop entrenched views, and question the sanity or morality of those that disagree
Losers of 2024
2024 would have given many people a bloody nose:
The rule of law: President Biden in the US gave a pardon to his son who was likely to be convicted of a crime and potentially face jail time. This is likely to be followed up by President Trump pardoning those who committed crimes on Jan 6th 2021, again without facing any punishment.
Pollsters: A number of pollsters again, looked off the mark as President Trump's electoral college win and the Republican clean sweep was considered an unexpected outcome.
The world's international welfare organisations: Whether it is the UN, Amnesty International, The Pope or the ICC/ICJ, have all been criticised for suggesing that there are war crimes happening in the Israel/Gaza and/or Russia/Ukraine conflicts.
Mainstream/print media: Torn between wanting to produce journalism and being rewarded by producing infomercials there is little hope of protecting this declining industry.
Decarbonisation: "Drill Baby drill" was seen as the Trump campaign's view towards decarbonising the energy mix. This was exacerbated by the conflicts of interest at COP29 and many of the green policies in Europe being rolled back.
The importance of work for Gen Z: Since COVID the role of work has changed materially. It's importance, enjoyment and role as a means to get ahead has decreased.
Winners of 2024
2024 has others riding high:
Non-traditional parties: Parties outside of the centre-left/centre-right fold have continued to have success. Many blame the traditional parties for the mess we are in, and advocate more significant changes.
Non-traditional media: As a decreasing share of the population read newspapers or switch the television on for the news, platforms like X, Instagram, Facebook etc and podcasts have become a staple for people. It is not coincidental that Team Trump relied on X and podcasters like Tucker Carlson and Joe Rogan to get their message across.
Artificial Intelligence: AI, has been heralded by so many to be the new hope to counter all our issues; medical issues, productivity, weapons that can make decisions. It does beg the question, how do we unwind things if it turns out to be dangerous?
Strong defence capabilities: This has been an excellent year for might is right. Strong armies and strong defence alliances are in vogue, and whether it is NATO pledges, or North Korean troops helping the Russian army, we are definitely moving towards a war footing.
Cultural conservatism: There is much more discussion about national character from a norms, race and religion perspective. This is not just happening in Europe and the US, but also countries like Russia, India and the Philippines.
I will leave you with just two more things. My favorite blog and book of 2024.
Favorite blog: Competing narratives. I enjoyed writing this blog, and got by far the most positive feedback. Have a read.
Favorite book: Published in 2012, I'm kicking myself for not getting to this sooner. It was on a list of books by Kemi Badenoch the new Conservative leader, alongside some other books. It challenged some things I had thought about and explained the idea that we feel first and justify later, rather than think through first and feel later. Read it.
Thank you so much for making 2024 such an enjoyable year. As always I appreciate your support and look forward to your challenge, article ideas and conversation.
All the best for 2025.
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